Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) has declared she will not seek re-election, paving the way for an already intense Senate race to reach new levels of unpredictability. Sinema broke the news on social media on Tuesday.
“In 2017, I warned we were approaching a crossroads. Our democracy was weakened by government dysfunction and the constant pull to the extremes by both political parties,” Sinema said. Her decision comes at a critical juncture, as recent polls indicate a volatile electorate, with candidates Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego neck and neck.
“The only political victories that matter these days are symbolic, attacking your opponents on cable news or social media. Compromise is a dirty word,” she said. “We’ve arrived at that crossroad and we chose anger and division. I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”
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Back in October, Lake, the Arizona Republican who previously ran for governor in 2022, officially registered her Senate campaign committee with the FEC in anticipation of her campaign launch. Lake has been considered a strong contender to secure the Republican primary nomination since then.
As the race for her seat heats up, Lake’s campaign in particular may see a seismic shift in its strategy and messaging. Polling data reveals a tight race in the general, but Lake holds a strong position in the Republican primary, leading with a significant 29-point margin, according to Rasmussen and the Bull Moose Project.
In general election matchups, Lake’s performance varies, leading Ruben Gallego in some polls by narrow margins of 3 to 4 points, while in others, Gallego leads Lake by 3 to 10 points, hinting at a potential swing towards the Democrats if Sinema is not in the race.
Gallego is a former U.S. Marine representing Arizona’s 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. A Democrat, he has a background in state politics as a member and assistant minority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives from 2012 until his resignation to pursue a congressional seat.
Gallego, who was first elected to Congress in 2014, represents a district that covers much of southern, western, and downtown Phoenix, along with parts of Glendale. His military service includes deployment as a USMCR Corporal during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Additionally, he played a significant role in national politics as the national chair of Eric Swalwell’s 2020 presidential campaign.
J.D. Vance (R-OH) recently joined the ranks of Senate Republicans supporting Lake in the Senate race, as the party has relatively rallied behind her. Earlier this month, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who leads the Senate Republicans’ campaign efforts, also vouched for Lake.
Lake’s efforts to mend fences and build bridges with the Republican establishment have evidently paid off, with her campaign gaining momentum and attracting attention from key GOP donors and strategists. Her participation in the NRSC’s winter meeting in Palm Beach, Florida, earlier this year provided her an opportunity to engage directly with senators and influential donors, many of whom expressed their admiration for her campaign’s direction and focus.
Despite locking horns with the establishment in past runs, Lake has made significant strides in moderating her image and reaching out to those she previously criticized. Her ability to secure the NRSC endorsement also reflected a united Republican front in Arizona, a state that has leaned increasingly Democratic in recent elections but remains fiercely competitive.
